Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n c\u0259nubunu v\u0259 qondarma Z\u0259ng\u0259zur d\u0259hlizini zorla \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7irm\u0259si perspektivin\u0259 baxmayaraq, Bak\u0131 \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 sazi\u015fl\u0259 raz\u0131la\u015fma\u011fa m\u0259cbur etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn nisb\u0259t\u0259n ki\u00e7ik \u0259razi m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259ri v\u0259 s\u0259rh\u0259dyan\u0131 at\u0259\u015f\u0259 m\u0259ruz qoyacaq.<\/strong><\/p>\n Millinews.az<\/a> <\/strong>Axar.az<\/a>-a istinad\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bu bar\u0259d\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n m\u0259\u015fhur \u201cStratfor\u201d strateji k\u0259\u015ffiyyat analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zinin t\u0259hlilind\u0259 bildirilib.<\/p>\n M\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 \u201cPolitiko\u201d n\u0259\u015frinin art\u0131q t\u0259kzib edil\u0259n iddias\u0131na \u2013 Baydenin konqresmenl\u0259r\u0259 \u201cyax\u0131n h\u0259ft\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n c\u0259nubuna i\u015f\u011fal\u0131 ehtimal\u0131\u201dna diqq\u0259t yetirilib. Bildirilib ki, bu b\u0259yanatlar Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n Avropa Birliyin\u0259 yeni t\u0259yin olunmu\u015f s\u0259firi Tiqran Balayan\u0131n oktyabr\u0131n 8-d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana bir ne\u00e7\u0259 h\u0259ft\u0259 \u0259rzind\u0259 m\u00fcdaxil\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201ct\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259\u201dnin oldu\u011funu dem\u0259sind\u0259n sonraya t\u0259sad\u00fcf edir:<\/p>\n \u201cH\u0259min g\u00fcn Az\u0259rbaycan Prezidenti \u0130lham \u018fliyev bildirib ki, Fransan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana h\u0259rbi yard\u0131m g\u00f6nd\u0259rm\u0259k q\u0259rar\u0131 Parisi \u201cErm\u0259nistanla h\u0259r hans\u0131 yeni m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259y\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 m\u0259suliyy\u0259t da\u015f\u0131yacaq\u201d t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 \u00e7evirir. H\u0259r iki b\u0259yanat Q\u0259rb paytaxtlar\u0131nda Erm\u0259nistan v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan aras\u0131nda g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k h\u0259rbi qar\u015f\u0131durman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fc il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 narahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131b, baxmayaraq ki, Az\u0259rbaycan sentyabrda beyn\u0259lxalq s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f \u0259razil\u0259rini geri qaytar\u0131b\u201d.<\/p>\n Analizd\u0259 iddia edilib ki, Prezident \u018fliyev \u201cerm\u0259nil\u0259rin rahat ya\u015famas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u201d Z\u0259ng\u0259zur d\u0259hlizi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6hd\u0259liyi yerin\u0259 yetirm\u0259sini t\u0259l\u0259b edib, h\u0259tta buna g\u00f6r\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 \u0259razi b\u00fct\u00f6vl\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fc tan\u0131mamaqla h\u0259d\u0259l\u0259yib:<\/p>\n \u201cErm\u0259nistan v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan r\u0259smil\u0259ri aras\u0131nda n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259li g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u0259rin al\u0131nmamas\u0131 g\u0259rginliyi daha da art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan v\u0259 \u0130r\u0259van v\u0259 Bak\u0131n\u0131n geosiyasi bax\u0131\u015flar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, s\u00fclh raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0259tin olaraq qal\u0131r. Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n Ba\u015f naziri Nikol Pa\u015finyan v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan Prezidenti \u018fliyev sonuncu d\u0259f\u0259 iyul ay\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. O vaxtdan b\u0259ri liderl\u0259rin art\u0131q iki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ba\u015f tutmay\u0131b – \u018fliyev Qranadaya, Pa\u015finyan Bi\u015fkek\u0259 getm\u0259yib.<\/p>\n Liderl\u0259rin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u0259ri buraxmaq q\u0259rar\u0131 onlar\u0131n \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin f\u0259rqli geosiyasi trayektoriyalar\u0131ndan x\u0259b\u0259r verir: Erm\u0259nistan Q\u0259rbl\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan is\u0259 Rusiya, \u0130ran v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 h\u0259mr\u0259ydir\u201d.<\/p>\n M\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259, 17 oktyabrda Pa\u015finyan Br\u00fcsseld\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259sinin Q\u0259rb\u0259 istiqam\u0259tl\u0259ndiyini a\u00e7\u0131q bildirib:<\/p>\n \u201cBundan istifad\u0259 ed\u0259n Bak\u0131 Rusiya, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana t\u0259zyiqini t\u0259min ed\u0259c\u0259k. Dinc yolla raz\u0131la\u015fma v\u0259 Z\u0259ng\u0259zur d\u0259hlizinin istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilm\u0259si h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil. Bununla bel\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n tezlikl\u0259 g\u00fcc t\u0259tbiq ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qorxular art\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, s\u00fclh v\u0259 ya s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259rin demarkasiyas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ciddi dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlar apar\u0131lm\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n Analizd\u0259 6 oktyabrda Prezident \u018fliyevin \u201c3+3\u201d format\u0131na \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck verm\u0259si v\u0259 qeyri-region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin regional probleml\u0259rin h\u0259llind\u0259n uzaqla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 t\u0259klifin\u0259 toxunulub. Bildirilib ki, bu, Bak\u0131n\u0131n m\u00f6vqeyini Kreml v\u0259 Tehranla daha da yax\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 bu da \u0130r\u0259vana t\u0259zyiqi formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r:<\/p>\n \u201cBeyn\u0259lxalq s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259ri b\u0259rpa etdikd\u0259n sonra Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n n\u00f6vb\u0259ti m\u0259qs\u0259di Erm\u0259nistan \u0259razisind\u0259n ke\u00e7\u0259n Z\u0259ng\u0259zur d\u0259hlizi il\u0259 eksklav\u0131 olan Nax\u00e7\u0131vanla tranzit\u0259 ba\u015flamaqd\u0131r. Az\u0259rbaycan eksterritorial d\u0259hlizd\u0259n bir \u00e7ox s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k ist\u0259yir, ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 h\u0259d\u0259fi eksklav\u0131na \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131 asanla\u015fd\u0131rmaq v\u0259 ucuzla\u015fd\u0131rmaq, Transx\u0259z\u0259r v\u0259 ya Orta D\u0259hliz deyil\u0259n v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 \u015e\u0259rq-Q\u0259rb ticar\u0259ti \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn birba\u015fa mar\u015frutdan istifad\u0259 etm\u0259kl\u0259 Nax\u00e7\u0131van\u0131n iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131 yax\u015f\u0131la\u015fd\u0131rmaqd\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n Ara\u015fd\u0131rmada bildirilir ki, bu m\u0259qs\u0259din bir hiss\u0259si olaraq, Bak\u0131 mar\u015frut boyunca minimal yoxlamalar\u0131n olmas\u0131n\u0131, \u0259n az\u0131 yaln\u0131z Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 onun eksklav\u0131 aras\u0131nda (dig\u0259r bazarlara aid deyil) da\u015f\u0131nan mallar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn he\u00e7 bir tarif v\u0259 ya tranzit r\u00fcsumunun olmamas\u0131n\u0131 ist\u0259yir:<\/p>\n \u201cBu m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7atmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Az\u0259rbaycan \u00e7oxsayl\u0131 t\u0259dbirl\u0259r g\u00f6r\u00fcr, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n \u0130ran \u0259razisind\u0259n ke\u00e7m\u0259kl\u0259 alternativ tranzit mar\u015frutunun inki\u015faf etdirilm\u0259si il\u0259 h\u0259d\u0259l\u0259yir ki, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 bu raz\u0131la\u015fmaya raz\u0131l\u0131q verm\u0259y\u0259 m\u0259cbur olsun\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cStratfor\u201d 2020-ci il 10 noyabr b\u0259yanat\u0131n\u0131n 9-cu b\u0259ndin\u0259 – Z\u0259ng\u0259zur yolunun Rusiya FTX-sinin n\u0259zar\u0259tind\u0259 olmas\u0131na da toxunub v\u0259 iddia edib ki, art\u0131q o sazi\u015f q\u00fcvv\u0259d\u0259n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb v\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan buna raz\u0131 olmayacaq.<\/p>\n Bununla bel\u0259, analitikl\u0259r hesab edir ki, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n qar\u0131\u015f\u0131q oldu\u011fu (Ukrayna v\u0259 \u0130srail n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulur \u2013 red.) indiki vaxtda Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n Z\u0259ng\u0259zur d\u0259hlizini h\u0259rbi m\u00fcdaxil\u0259 il\u0259 a\u00e7maq \u015fans\u0131 yaran\u0131b:<\/p>\n \u201cAz\u0259rbaycan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistan \u0259razisini i\u015f\u011fal etm\u0259si \u00e7ox az ehtimal olunan ssenari olaraq qal\u0131r. Bununla bel\u0259, Bak\u0131n\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lki ill\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n daha az h\u0259rbi g\u00fccl\u0259 \u00f6z m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259rin\u0259 nail ola bil\u0259c\u0259yini qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sinin bir ne\u00e7\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259bi var:<\/p>\n Birincisi, Az\u0259rbaycan Erm\u0259nistandan daha b\u00f6y\u00fck v\u0259 daha yax\u015f\u0131 t\u0259chiz edilmi\u015f h\u0259rbi q\u00fcvv\u0259y\u0259 malikdir v\u0259 buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 s\u00fclh dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Erm\u0259nistan \u0259razisinin bir hiss\u0259sini u\u011furla \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7ir\u0259 v\u0259 saxlaya bil\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 inan\u0131r. Bak\u0131 h\u0259m d\u0259 inana bil\u0259r ki, bu h\u0259rbi \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck v\u0259 \u00f6z n\u00f6vb\u0259sind\u0259 d\u0259hlizi \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7irm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn g\u00fcc t\u0259tbiq etm\u0259k imkanlar\u0131 zaman ke\u00e7dikc\u0259 erm\u0259ni q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rinin b\u00f6lg\u0259d\u0259 istehkamlar qurmas\u0131 v\u0259 daha keyfiyy\u0259tli Q\u0259rb silahlar\u0131na yiy\u0259l\u0259nm\u0259si il\u0259 azala bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n \u0130kincisi, Bak\u0131 hesab ed\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, indi i\u015f\u011fala ba\u015flama\u011f\u0131n Q\u0259rbd\u0259n irimiqyasl\u0131 iqtisadi sanksiyalara s\u0259b\u0259b olma ehtimal\u0131 azd\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki Rusiya t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc \u0259v\u0259z etm\u0259k s\u0259yl\u0259ri fonunda Avropa v\u0259 AB\u015e Az\u0259rbaycan nefti v\u0259 t\u0259bii qaz\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131b. Ukrayna v\u0259 d\u00fcnya enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259ki k\u0259skin art\u0131mdan \u00e7ox narahatd\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Az\u0259rbaycan y\u0259qin ki, regional oyun\u00e7ular\u0131n v\u0259 beyn\u0259lxalq ictimaiyy\u0259tin diqq\u0259tinin Ukraynada v\u0259 Q\u0259zza zola\u011f\u0131nda davam ed\u0259n dig\u0259r b\u00f6hranlara (v\u0259 son m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259nin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259sin\u0259) c\u0259lb olundu\u011funa v\u0259 bu regiondan yay\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 onlar\u0131n (Q\u0259rbin \u2013 red.) Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n h\u0259rbi \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda i\u015ftirak etm\u0259k ist\u0259yi olmayacaq.<\/p>\n N\u0259hay\u0259t, 2020-ci ild\u0259n b\u0259ri davaml\u0131 silsil\u0259 h\u0259rbi v\u0259 diplomatik u\u011furlara imza atan Prezident \u018fliyev yuxar\u0131da g\u00f6st\u0259ril\u0259n amill\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, bel\u0259 bir h\u0259rbi \u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131n tezlikl\u0259 q\u0259l\u0259b\u0259 qazana bil\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 h\u0259dd\u0259n art\u0131q arxay\u0131n ola bil\u0259r\u201d.<\/p>\n M\u0259rk\u0259z iddia edib ki, Rusiya Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n m\u00fcdafi\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259ri \u201cd\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259\u201d yerin\u0259 yetirm\u0259yib, buna baxmayaraq, Az\u0259rbaycan \u201cdaha ki\u00e7ik\u201d h\u0259rbi h\u0259ml\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 meyilli ola bil\u0259r, n\u0259inki i\u015f\u011fala:<\/p>\n \u201cAz\u0259rbaycan\u0131n haz\u0131rda Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n c\u0259nubunu i\u015f\u011fal etm\u0259k fikrind\u0259 olmas\u0131n\u0131n bir ne\u00e7\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259bi olsa da, Bak\u0131n\u0131n i\u015f\u011fal\u00e7\u0131l\u0131qdan uzaq, \u201cat\u0131\u015fma taktikas\u0131\u201d y\u00fcr\u00fctm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn daha \u00e7ox s\u0259b\u0259bi ola bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n Birincisi, Erm\u0259nistan \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n tranzit d\u0259hlizinin yarad\u0131lmas\u0131 Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox arzuolunan olsa da, q\u0259tiyy\u0259n z\u0259ruri deyil. Az\u0259rbaycan \u00f6z eksklav\u0131 olan Nax\u00e7\u0131vanla G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 Bak\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rda Erm\u0259nistandan yan ke\u00e7\u0259r\u0259k Z\u0259ng\u0259zura alternativ hesab etdiyi \u0130ran vasit\u0259sil\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259 saxlay\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r \u0130ran v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri normalla\u015fd\u0131rsalar, bu, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 regional t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015flar\u0131ndan daha da t\u0259crid ed\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 onun regionda artan \u015e\u0259rq-Q\u0259rb ticar\u0259tind\u0259 uduzmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olacaq ki, \u0130r\u0259van bundan qa\u00e7maq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Bak\u0131ya g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ft\u0259 ged\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n \u0130kincisi, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u0259n yax\u0131n m\u00fctt\u0259fiqi olan T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 Suriyaya h\u0259rbi m\u00fcdaxil\u0259 v\u0259 bir s\u0131ra dig\u0259r regional v\u0259 daxili m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 m\u0259\u015f\u011fuldur. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, Ankara \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, regional g\u00fcc balans\u0131n\u0131 pozmaq v\u0259 eyni zamanda T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin Q\u0259rb, Rusiya v\u0259 \u0130ranla m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 x\u0259l\u0259l g\u0259tirm\u0259k riski da\u015f\u0131yan Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n geni\u015fmiqyasl\u0131 i\u015f\u011fal\u0131na qar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131xacaq, eyni zamanda Ankaran\u0131n Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 \u00f6z t\u0259sir dair\u0259sin\u0259 c\u0259lb etm\u0259k h\u0259d\u0259fin\u0259 mane olacaq. D\u0259hlizin \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7irilm\u0259si h\u0259m d\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin beyn\u0259lxalq m\u00f6vqeyini v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rini \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259k ki, bunun da Bak\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ziyan\u0131 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n c\u0259nubunu i\u015f\u011fal etm\u0259yin faydalar\u0131ndan \u00e7ox ola bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n i\u015f\u011fal\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 Erm\u0259nistanla daha bir geni\u015fmiqyasl\u0131, h\u0259m d\u0259 iki \u00f6lk\u0259nin \u0259vv\u0259lki \u2013 2020-ci ild\u0259ki – m\u00fcharib\u0259sind\u0259n daha \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl olacaq\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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