AB\u015e ordusunun \u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 Venesuela prezidenti Nikolas Maduro v\u0259 xan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259bs edilm\u0259sinin neft bazar\u0131na t\u0259siri m\u00fczakir\u0259 edilir. B\u0259zi ekspertl\u0259r bu m\u00f6vzuda nikbin olsa da, bir \u00e7ox ekspert qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Modern.az-\u0131n m\u0259lumat\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, iqtisad\u00e7\u0131\u00a0Eld\u0259niz \u018fmirov\u00a0bildirib ki,\u00a0Venesuela planetd\u0259 t\u0259sbit olunmu\u015f neft ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 17,2 faizin\u0259, y\u0259ni 304 milyard barel\u0259 sahib olmaqla d\u00fcnya birincisidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Amma haz\u0131rda AB\u015e-\u0131n Venesuelaya m\u00fcdaxil\u0259si h\u0259l\u0259 o dem\u0259k deyil ki, bu neft q\u0131sa zamanda bazarlara \u00e7\u0131x\u0131b hans\u0131sa ciddi f\u0259rqlilikl\u0259r yaradacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki, m\u00f6vcud infrastrukturun s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u00e7ox a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bel\u0259 ki, quyular\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259si k\u00f6hn\u0259dir v\u0259 fasil\u0259siz i\u015fl\u0259m\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kompressorlar, nasoslar v\u0259 enerji t\u0259minat\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fm\u0131r. M\u00f6vcud hasilat g\u00fcc\u00fc texniki a\u015f\u0131nma v\u0259 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli bax\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131q s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n potensialdan xeyli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259dir. \u00c7\u0131xar\u0131lan neftin boru k\u0259m\u0259rl\u0259ri il\u0259 terminallara da\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131nda itkil\u0259r v\u0259 fasil\u0259l\u0259r ya\u015fan\u0131r, bu da g\u00fcnd\u0259lik hasilat\u0131n art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 Venesuelan\u0131n ixrac infrastrukturu neftin bazara s\u00fcr\u0259tli v\u0259 k\u00fctl\u0259vi \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131na tam haz\u0131r deyil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Venesuelan\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck emal m\u0259rk\u0259zi olan neft emal kompleksl\u0259ri uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tdir ki, g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ki\u00e7ik hiss\u0259si il\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259yir. B\u0259zi d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 bu f\u0259aliyy\u0259tin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 10 faizi i\u015fl\u0259k olur”, – o qeyd edib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ekspertin s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Venesuelan\u0131n \u0259sas neft ehtiyatlar\u0131 Orinoko h\u00f6vz\u0259sind\u0259 yerl\u0259\u015fir v\u0259 burada \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131lan xammal \u0259sas\u0259n \u00e7ox a\u011f\u0131r, y\u00fcks\u0259k \u00f6zl\u00fcl\u00fckl\u00fc neftdir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Bu neftin API g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi ad\u0259t\u0259n 7-9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olur, qatran v\u0259 asfalten pay\u0131 y\u00fcks\u0259kdir, bu da hasilat, da\u015f\u0131nma v\u0259 emal\u0131 bahala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beyn\u0259lxalq bazara is\u0259 bu xammal seyreltm\u0259 v\u0259 qar\u0131\u015fd\u0131rma yolu il\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131l\u0131r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Merey 16 markal\u0131 qar\u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131n API g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi t\u0259xmin\u0259n 16, k\u00fck\u00fcrd t\u0259rkibi is\u0259 3 faiz civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 Brent neftind\u0259n normal \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 12-15 dollar ucuz sat\u0131l\u0131r. Amma sanksiya v\u0259 dig\u0259r riskl\u0259r artanda is\u0259 Brentd\u0259n 20 dollar da ucuz ola bilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Orinoko neftini ixraca uy\u011fun etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn nafta v\u0259 y\u00fcng\u00fcl neft kimi seyreldicil\u0259r laz\u0131md\u0131r. Bu komponentl\u0259r \u00e7atmayanda hasilat birba\u015fa bo\u011fulur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
2025-ci ilin son g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 Venesuelan\u0131n g\u00fcnd\u0259lik neft hasilat\u0131 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 0,9 milyon barel s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir. Hasilat\u0131 art\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r k\u00f6hn\u0259 hasilat infrastrukturu, texniki servis \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131, seyreldici t\u0259minat\u0131 v\u0259 investisiya q\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. AB\u015e Enerji M\u0259lumtlar\u0131 Administrasiyas\u0131 (EIA) v\u0259 bazar monitorinq \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rinin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259bu probleml\u0259r m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259li \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 aradan qald\u0131r\u0131lsa, 12-18 ay \u0259rzind\u0259 hasilat\u0131 1,2 milyon barel\/g\u00fcn, 2-3 il \u0259rzind\u0259 is\u0259 g\u00fcnd\u0259lik 1,5-2,0 milyon barel s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131rmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. 3 milyon barel v\u0259 yuxar\u0131 hasilat is\u0259 yaln\u0131z iri h\u0259cmli kapital qoyulu\u015fu v\u0259 texnoloji yenil\u0259nm\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259b etdiyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 4-6 illik zaman interval\u0131nda real g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2025-ci ilin sonuna qlobal g\u00fcnd\u0259lik neft t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 104 milyon barel s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir. Bu bax\u0131mdan g\u00fcnd\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 1 milyon barel bazara \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1 faizin\u0259, 2 milyon barel is\u0259 2 faiz\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259rdir. R\u0259q\u0259m bax\u0131m\u0131ndan ki\u00e7ik g\u00f6r\u00fcns\u0259 d\u0259, neft bazar\u0131nda qiym\u0259ti \u00e7ox vaxt m\u0259hz bu marjinal d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eld\u0259niz \u018fmirov vur\u011fulay\u0131b ki, m\u00f6vcud \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 2026-c\u0131 il Venesuela nefti \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn real sat\u0131\u015f ili deyil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“\u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 prosesl\u0259r h\u0259l\u0259 formala\u015fma m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259dir v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik, idar\u0259etm\u0259, texniki sabitlik v\u0259 infrastruktur olmadan hasilat\u0131n v\u0259 ixrac\u0131n artmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n 2026-da Venesuela neftinin qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259siri real h\u0259cml\u0259 yox, \u0259sas\u0259n g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259r s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 qalacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u018fg\u0259r prosesl\u0259r 2026-n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru stabill\u0259\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, real bazar t\u0259siri 2027-ci ild\u0259n hiss oluna bil\u0259r. Bu m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 hssilat\u0131n 1,3-1,5 milyon barel\/g\u00fcn s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 yax\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, bu da qlobal t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1-1,5 faizi dem\u0259kdir. Bel\u0259 art\u0131m bazar\u0131 sars\u0131tmaz, lakin neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin yuxar\u0131 h\u0259ddin\u0259 5-7 dollar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u018fg\u0259r 2028-2029-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 hasilat 1,8-2,0 milyon barel\/g\u00fcn s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 sabitl\u0259\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, Venesuela art\u0131q neft bazar\u0131nda struktur faktor kimi \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f etm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flayar. Bu m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 \u0259sas effekt bird\u0259f\u0259lik qiym\u0259t eni\u015fi yox, neftin uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli tarazl\u0131q s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259si olar v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin formala\u015fmas\u0131 daha \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015f\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Daha uzaq perspektivd\u0259, \u0259g\u0259r Venesuela 5-6 il \u0259rzind\u0259 hasilat\u0131 3 milyon barel\/g\u00fcn s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131ra bils\u0259, bu art\u0131q qlobal bazar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u015fok dem\u0259kdir. Bel\u0259 h\u0259cmd\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 t\u0259klif OPEC t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n tam kompensasiya olunmazsa, Brent qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t 60 dollar interval\u0131ndan yuxar\u0131 qalmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015f\u0259r v\u0259 bazar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 diapazonda s\u0131x\u0131\u015far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u018fg\u0259r buna b\u0259nz\u0259r ssenari \u0130ran \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 d\u0259 qurularsa v\u0259 iki \u00f6lk\u0259 birlikd\u0259 g\u00fcnd\u0259 5\u20136 milyon barel \u0259lav\u0259 t\u0259klif formala\u015fd\u0131rarsa, bu art\u0131q qlobal neft bazar\u0131nda oyun qaydalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n v\u0259ziyy\u0259t olar. Bel\u0259 bir \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 Brent \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 50 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259si yeni normaya \u00e7evril\u0259, y\u00fcks\u0259k qiym\u0259tl\u0259r is\u0259 yaln\u0131z f\u00f6vq\u0259lad\u0259 geosiyasi \u015foklarla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ola bil\u0259r”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AB\u015e ordusunun \u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 Venesuela prezidenti Nikolas Maduro v\u0259 xan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259bs edilm\u0259sinin neft bazar\u0131na t\u0259siri m\u00fczakir\u0259 edilir. B\u0259zi ekspertl\u0259r bu m\u00f6vzuda nikbin olsa da, bir \u00e7ox ekspert qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr. Modern.az-\u0131n m\u0259lumat\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, iqtisad\u00e7\u0131\u00a0Eld\u0259niz \u018fmirov\u00a0bildirib ki,\u00a0Venesuela planetd\u0259 t\u0259sbit olunmu\u015f neft ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 17,2 faizin\u0259, y\u0259ni 304 milyard barel\u0259 sahib olmaqla d\u00fcnya birincisidir. “Amma haz\u0131rda AB\u015e-\u0131n …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21624,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-idman"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21623"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21625,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21623\/revisions\/21625"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/21624"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millitv.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}